In hockey, a point is a goal or an assist, and most points props sit at 0.5: will the player get on the scoresheet at all? Assists props work the same way with goals taken out.
These are steadier bets than goal props, because a player can earn an assist on a goal he didn't score. But they still hinge on his team scoring, and on him being on the ice when it does.
What the line is pricing
A points or assists line comes down to:
- How many goals his team is expected to score.
- How often he's on the ice for them.
- How often he's involved when he is.
Up to two assists are awarded on most goals, so a playmaker on the top line can rack up points without scoring himself.
1. Team scoring
Start with the game total and the moneyline. A team expected to score four goals gives its top players many more chances to get a point than a team expected to score two. A strong opposing goalie, or a defensive matchup, lowers everyone's chances.
2. Linemates and ice time
Points come in groups: when a line scores, two or three players on it usually get a point. That makes linemates as important as the player himself.
- A top-line forward plays the most minutes with the best teammates.
- A promotion or demotion changes both ice time and who he's passing to. Line changes come out around morning skate, often after the props are posted.
- Top-pair defensemen can be good assist bets, since they're on the ice for a lot of goals and often get the second assist.
3. The power play
A big share of points come on the power play. A player on the first unit gets those minutes; one on the second unit gets far fewer. Opponents who take a lot of penalties give him more of them. A power play role is often the difference between a good points bet and a bad one.
4. The goalie
A backup goalie, or a starter on the second night of a back-to-back, raises the whole team's scoring chances. Confirmed starters are usually announced before the game.
0.5 vs 1.5 points
Most points lines are 0.5, so the bet is whether he gets on the scoresheet at all. The price is the key: a top player's over 0.5 is often a steep minus, because he gets a point in most games.
A 1.5 line is a very different bet. Two or more points in one game is far less common, so the over is usually plus money. Don't read a 1.5 line as "one more than 0.5"; it's closer to a long shot.
The same applies to assists. Assists alone are less frequent than points, so an over 0.5 assists is usually priced longer than the same player's over 0.5 points.
Comparing books
Points and assists prices vary between books, and pick'em apps post their own lines. Compare the price as a probability; the no-vig calculator strips the margin out. On PrizePicks and Underdog, where there's no price, compare the app's line to the books' prices on the same player.
A short checklist
- Check the team's expected scoring.
- Know his line, his linemates and his ice time.
- Check his power play unit.
- Check the opposing goalie and back-to-backs.
- Read 0.5 and 1.5 lines as very different bets.
- Compare prices across books.
Betravon lines up every book's points and assists lines for each player. See today's NHL points props and NHL assists props, or every NHL player prop.