Shots and shots on target are the steadiest soccer player props. Goals are rare and random; shots happen several times a game for the right players, so they track a player's role much more closely.
This guide covers what drives shot volume, what counts as a shot on target, and how to read the line.
What counts
- A shot is any attempt at goal: on target, off target or blocked.
- A shot on target is one that would have gone in without a save, or that does go in. Shots that hit the post or crossbar and stay out don't count as on target, and neither do blocked shots.
That second point matters. A striker who rattles the woodwork twice can lose a shots-on-target over despite a great game. Check how each book settles the market, since the definitions follow the official data provider.
1. Role and position
Shot volume follows role.
- Central strikers take the most shots and the most from close range, so a higher share land on target.
- Wide forwards and attacking midfielders shoot often, but more from distance, where fewer hit the target.
- Set-piece takers get extra attempts from free kicks, and penalty takers get the highest-quality chance of all.
Before betting, check whether the player is expected to start, and in what position. A forward moved wide or left on the bench changes everything.
2. Team attacking volume
A player can only shoot as often as his team attacks. A dominant side expected to control the ball against a weaker opponent creates more chances for everyone. A team expected to sit back and counter creates fewer, though its striker may still get good ones.
The match odds help: a big favorite usually takes far more shots than an underdog.
3. Minutes
Soccer substitutions change shot props a lot. A forward subbed off around the hour mark loses a third of the game. Players returning from injury, and those in rotation during a busy run of fixtures, often play fewer minutes.
Most shot props only count the 90 minutes plus stoppage time, not extra time. Check the book's rules for cup matches.
4. The opponent
Some defenses allow lots of shots but few good ones. Others block a lot. A team that defends deep can cut a striker's shots on target even if his total shots hold up.
Low lines
Shot lines are low: 0.5, 1.5 or 2.5 shots, and usually 0.5 or 1.5 on target. At those numbers, the price tells you more than the line. Convert it to a probability, and compare books with the no-vig calculator. Use hit rates over recent matches rather than averages: how often did he actually reach two shots?
Shots vs shots on target
If you like a player's volume but not his accuracy, total shots is the cleaner bet. If he's a central striker taking close-range shots, shots on target can be the better price. The two lines should agree: when a player's shots line is high but his on-target line is low, check which one looks out of step.
A short checklist
- Confirm he's starting, and where.
- Check his role: striker, winger, set-piece taker.
- Read the match odds for team attacking volume.
- Watch for minutes limits and rotation.
- Know what counts: blocked shots and the woodwork don't count as on target.
- Use the price and hit rates on low lines.
Betravon lines up every book's shots and shots on target lines for each player. See today's soccer shots props and shots on target props, or every soccer player prop.