Anytime goalscorer is the most popular soccer player prop. It's simple to follow and pays well, but goals are rare, and the market carries a lot of margin. Assist props work the same way with the passer instead of the finisher.
This guide covers what drives the price, what counts for settlement, and how to find better odds.
What the price is pricing
An anytime goalscorer price is a probability that the player scores at least once. A striker at +150 needs to score about 40% of the time to break even; a midfielder at +400 needs about 20%.
The main drivers:
- Chance quality and volume, often measured as expected goals (xG): how many good chances he gets.
- Penalties. The designated taker gets the best chance in the game whenever one is awarded.
- Minutes. A player who starts and plays 90 has far more time to score than a substitute.
- The match. His team's expected goals, from the match odds.
1. Expected goals and chances
Goals are noisy; chances are steadier. A striker who gets several good chances a game will score regularly over a season, even through cold streaks. A player on a hot run of goals from long shots is less likely to keep it up. Shots, and especially shots from inside the box, are a better guide than recent goals. How to bet soccer shots props covers shot volume.
2. Penalties and set pieces
The penalty taker gets a big boost. Penalties are converted far more often than open-play chances, so a striker who takes them is a better goalscorer bet than one who doesn't, all else equal. Corners and free kicks matter for tall center backs, whose goalscorer prices can be long for a reason: they get a few headed chances a game.
3. Minutes and rotation
A player has to be on the pitch to score. Check team news before betting: a rested star, a player returning from injury on a minutes limit, or rotation during a busy run of fixtures all lower his chances. Many books void the bet if the player doesn't play at all, but not if he comes on late. Check the rules.
4. The match odds
A team expected to score three goals gives its attackers more chances than one expected to score one. The match total and the moneyline together tell you roughly how many goals each side should get.
What counts
- Own goals don't count for any player in a goalscorer market.
- Extra time usually doesn't count. Most markets settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Penalty shootouts never count.
- Assists follow the official data provider's definition, which can differ from what you'd call an assist watching the game. A deflected pass or a rebound may not count. Check how the book settles it.
Why the margin is high
Goalscorer markets often carry more margin than other props, and books usually post only the "yes" side. That makes shopping for the best price essential. The same striker can be +140 at one book and +170 at another. Convert prices with the odds converter to compare them.
Assist props
Assists are less frequent than goals for most players, so the prices are longer. The best assist bets are creative midfielders and wide players who take set pieces, since corners and free kicks produce a lot of assists. A player on a dominant team, playing behind a striker who scores often, has the most chances.
A short checklist
- Check team news: is he starting, and for how long?
- Know the penalty and set-piece takers.
- Look at his chances and shots, not his recent goals.
- Read the match odds for team goals.
- Know what counts: no own goals, usually no extra time.
- Shop every book for the best price.
Betravon lines up every book's goal and assist prices for each player. See today's soccer goal props and assist props, or every soccer player prop.