Anytime touchdown is the most popular NFL prop for casual bettors, and one of the hardest to beat. It pays well, it's easy to follow, and it's priced with a lot of room for the book.
The bet is simple: the player scores a rushing or receiving touchdown at any point in the game. This guide covers what really drives touchdowns, why the odds look the way they do, and how to find a better price.
What the price is pricing
An anytime touchdown price is a probability. A player at +200 needs to score about one game in three for the bet to break even. Two things drive that probability:
- How many points his team is expected to score. More expected touchdowns means more chances for everyone.
- His share of the touchdown chances. Who gets the ball near the goal line.
1. Team expected points
The game total and the spread together tell you how many points each team is expected to score. A team expected to score 28 has far more touchdown chances to hand out than a team expected to score 17. The same player can be a very different bet in a high-scoring matchup.
2. Red zone and goal-line roles
Touchdowns come disproportionately from short distances, so the role near the goal line matters more than overall usage.
- Goal-line backs can score often without many yards. A back who gets most of the carries inside the 5-yard line may be a better touchdown bet than a more productive back who doesn't.
- Big receivers and tight ends are often targeted near the end zone, where there's less room to throw.
- Mobile quarterbacks score rushing touchdowns on designed runs and sneaks, and they count for this bet.
A player's touchdown total from last season can mislead. Touchdowns are rare and lumpy. Red zone usage is a steadier signal than the touchdown count itself.
3. Who's in or out
When a team's goal-line back or top red zone target is out, those chances go somewhere. The player who inherits them can be underpriced for a week or two. Betravon's player pages list teammates on the injury report by position, so a missing back or receiver is easy to spot.
Why the odds are long, and why the hold is high
Touchdown markets usually carry more margin than standard props. Books often post only the "yes" side, so there's no "no" price to compare and no easy way to see how much margin is built in.
That makes line shopping more important here than almost anywhere else. The same player can be +150 at one book and +190 at another. Over a season, always taking the best price is often the difference between losing and breaking even.
Comparing books
Because each book prices touchdowns separately, gaps between books are common. A few things to look for:
- The best price for the player you like. Even a small improvement in odds compounds over many bets.
- Books that disagree with the market. When one book is far longer than the rest on a player, check whether something changed, like an injury. If not, that book may simply be off.
- The implied probability. Converting odds to a percentage makes comparisons easier. The odds converter does this instantly.
First touchdown vs anytime
First touchdown props pay much more, but only the first scorer in the whole game wins, and a defensive or special-teams touchdown can beat every offensive player. Anytime is far more likely to hit. If you're betting first touchdown, think of it as a long shot, not a better version of anytime.
A short checklist
- Check the game total and spread for team expected points.
- Know his red zone and goal-line role.
- Check who's in or out near the goal line.
- Look past last season's touchdown total.
- Shop every book for the best price.
Betravon lines up every book's anytime touchdown price for each player, side by side. See today's NFL anytime touchdown odds, or every NFL player prop.