Three-pointers made is the prop where one shot changes everything. Lines are small, often 1.5 to 3.5, so a single make or miss decides the bet. A good shooter can go 1 for 8 on a normal night.
That makes threes props as much about attempts as about skill. This guide covers what the line is pricing, the inputs that move it, how much variance to expect, and how to use the ladder of alternate lines.
What the line is pricing
A threes line is:
- Attempts. How many threes he will take.
- Percentage. How often they go in.
Attempts are the steadier of the two, and the one worth focusing on. A player who takes eight threes a game will have off nights, but he gets enough tries for his percentage to show up. A player who takes three needs most of them to fall.
1. Attempts come from role and minutes
- Minutes. Back-to-backs, blowouts and minutes limits all cut attempts directly.
- Role. A spot-up shooter's attempts depend on how often the ball finds him. A guard who creates his own shot is less dependent on teammates.
- Teammates out. When a primary scorer sits, the shots spread around, and spot-up shooters often see more open threes. When a passer sits, catch-and-shoot chances can fall.
- Game script. Teams behind late take more threes to catch up. A player on a likely underdog may get extra attempts in the fourth quarter.
Betravon's player pages show who is out on his team beside his game log, so you can check whether his recent attempts came with the same lineup.
2. The defense he faces
Some defenses chase shooters off the line and give up drives. Others pack the paint and concede threes. Against a defense that allows a lot of three-point attempts, the over gets more chances to cash. Against one that runs shooters off the line, volume can drop even for great shooters.
Pace matters too. More possessions mean more shots of every kind.
How much variance to expect
Shooting is streaky over small samples. A 38% shooter taking six threes will often make one or two, sometimes four or five, in perfectly normal games. That's why a hot streak is weak evidence on its own. Five straight overs can come from good luck on the same number of attempts.
When you look at his last ten games, look at attempts first and makes second. If his attempts have held steady and the line hasn't moved, his recent makes are likely to drift back toward his normal percentage, in either direction.
The threes ladder
Threes ladders are where this market gets interesting. Books post 1+, 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+ and up, over only, each with a price.
- 1+ is often priced as a near-lock for volume shooters. It usually is, but the price leaves little room for profit.
- The middle rungs, near his line, behave like the main market.
- The top rungs pay long. A 5+ on a high-volume shooter can be a reasonable small bet when his attempts are up, for example with a teammate out.
Because each rung is a big step, small pricing differences between books add up. Compare the same rung at several books before choosing one.
Alt lines explained covers how to compare ladder rungs with the main line.
Pick'em apps and threes
Pick'em apps usually post threes at 1.5 or 2.5. With lines this small, a pick'em line that sits half a three below where the books are pricing is a meaningful difference, worth checking against the books' prices before you pick it.
A short checklist
- Confirm minutes and role.
- Check who is out: scorers and passers change his attempts in different ways.
- Read the defense: does it allow threes or chase shooters off the line?
- Look at his attempts over the last ten games, not just his makes.
- Compare prices across books, rung by rung.
Betravon shows every book's threes line and ladder for each player with his last ten games and tonight's injury report. See today's NBA 3-pointer props, or every NBA player prop side by side.