PrizePicks and Underdog look similar. You pick more or less on a handful of player lines, and the payout depends on how many picks you make and how many hit. The payout tables are where they differ, and small differences in a multiplier make a real difference to the win rate you need.
This post compares the standard tables and turns each one into a single number: the per-pick win rate needed to break even.
A note before the numbers: these are the tables Betravon currently uses. Both apps change their payouts from time to time, and some states have different tables or entry types. Check the app before you play.
The tables
PrizePicks Power Play (all picks must hit): 2 picks 3x, 3 picks 6x, 4 picks 10x, 5 picks 20x, 6 picks 37.5x.
Underdog Standard (all picks must hit): 2 picks 3.5x, 3 picks 6.5x, 4 picks 12x, 5 picks 20x, 6 picks 35x, 7 picks 65x, 8 picks 120x.
Both also offer Flex-style entries that pay something when you miss one or two picks:
| Picks | PrizePicks Flex | Underdog Flex |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3/3: 3x, 2/3: 1x | 3/3: 3.25x, 2/3: 1.09x |
| 4 | 4/4: 6x, 3/4: 1.5x | 4/4: 6x, 3/4: 1.5x |
| 5 | 5/5: 10x, 4/5: 2x, 3/5: 0.4x | 5/5: 10x, 4/5: 2.5x |
| 6 | 6/6: 25x, 5/6: 2x, 4/6: 0.4x | 6/6: 25x, 5/6: 2.6x, 4/6: 0.25x |
| 7 | n/a | 7/7: 40x, 6/7: 2.75x, 5/7: 0.5x |
| 8 | n/a | 8/8: 80x, 7/8: 3x, 6/8: 1x |
How break-even is calculated
For an all-or-nothing entry with n picks paying M times your stake, you break even when the chance of hitting every pick, times M, equals 1. If each pick hits with probability p:
pⁿ × M = 1, so p = (1 ÷ M)^(1/n)
Take the 2-pick PrizePicks Power Play at 3x. The break-even per pick is (1 ÷ 3)^(1/2) = 57.74%. Converted to American odds, that's about -137. Each pick needs to be as likely as a -137 favorite just for the entry to be a break-even bet.
For Flex entries the math sums every paying outcome, so it has to be solved numerically. The results are below.
All-or-nothing break-evens
| Picks | PrizePicks Power | Odds | Underdog Standard | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 57.74% | -137 | 53.45% | -115 |
| 3 | 55.03% | -122 | 53.58% | -115 |
| 4 | 56.23% | -128 | 53.73% | -116 |
| 5 | 54.93% | -122 | 54.93% | -122 |
| 6 | 54.66% | -121 | 55.29% | -124 |
| 7 | n/a | 55.08% | -123 | |
| 8 | n/a | 54.97% | -122 |
Flex break-evens
| Picks | PrizePicks Flex | Odds | Underdog Flex | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 57.74% | -137 | 55.39% | -124 |
| 4 | 55.03% | -122 | 55.03% | -122 |
| 5 | 54.25% | -119 | 54.75% | -121 |
| 6 | 54.21% | -118 | 53.82% | -117 |
| 7 | n/a | 55.42% | -124 | |
| 8 | n/a | 55.07% | -123 |
What stands out
Small Underdog Standard entries are cheaper. At 2, 3 and 4 picks, Underdog's higher multipliers bring the break-even down to about 53.5% (around -115). PrizePicks Power at the same sizes needs 55% to nearly 58%. The 2-pick gap is the biggest: 53.45% vs 57.74%.
The 5-pick entries are identical. Both pay 20x, so both need 54.93% per pick.
At 6 picks, PrizePicks Power edges ahead. 37.5x vs 35x makes the PrizePicks 6-pick slightly cheaper to break even on, 54.66% vs 55.29%.
Flex is close between the two. The 4-pick Flex tables are the same. PrizePicks is a touch better at 5 picks, Underdog at 3 and 6.
Nothing gets near 50%. Every entry here needs each pick to be at least a -115 favorite. A standard sportsbook bet at -110 needs 52.38%. Pick'em entries are priced well above that, which is why picking at random, or picking on a hunch, loses over time.
Why the "best" entry depends on your picks
The lowest break-even isn't automatically the best entry. It's the best entry for picks of a given quality. If your picks are around 55%, a 2-pick on Underdog clears its bar while a 2-pick on PrizePicks doesn't. If your picks are around 58%, nearly everything clears, and the bigger entries start to pay off more because the edge compounds across legs.
The other factor is variance. A 6-pick all-or-nothing entry at a 55% hit rate pays out only about once every 36 tries. Even with a small edge, long losing runs are normal.
How to use these numbers
- Find the sportsbook price for each pick at the same line, and take the margin out to get a fair probability.
- Compare that probability to the break-even for the entry you plan to play.
- If most of your picks are below the bar, the entry is a losing bet on average, no matter how confident you feel.
The DFS payout calculator runs this for any table and entry size, including Flex, so you can test a lineup before you submit it.