On PrizePicks, most projections come at a single standard line. Some players also get extra lines next to the standard one, marked with a small icon: a goblin or a demon.
They look like free options. They aren't free. Each one trades hit chance for payout, and whether that trade is good depends on numbers the app doesn't spell out for you.
What goblins and demons are
A goblin is a lower line than the standard one. If a receiver's standard line is 54.5 receiving yards, a goblin might be 39.5. It's easier to clear, so it pays less.
A demon is a higher line. The same receiver might have a demon at 74.5 yards. It's harder to clear, so it pays more.
Two practical details matter:
- They're usually More-only. In most cases you can only take the over on a goblin or demon. You can't take Less on a 39.5 goblin and collect on a quiet game.
- They change the whole lineup's payout. There isn't a separate price on the pick itself. The effect shows up in your entry's total.
How the payout changes
PrizePicks doesn't publish a per-pick multiplier for each goblin or demon. What you see is the lineup's total payout at the moment you submit. Add a goblin and the number drops. Add a demon and it rises. Mix several and the total moves again, and the amount can differ from one goblin to the next.
So the only reliable way to know what a goblin costs is to build the lineup both ways and compare the payout the app shows you. That's the number every calculation below starts from.
The baseline: a standard 4-pick Power Play
With all standard lines, a 4-pick Power Play pays 10x. To break even, all four picks need to hit often enough that:
p⁴ × 10 = 1
Solving gives p = 56.23% per pick, about -128 in sportsbook terms. (The break-even win rate guide covers every entry size.)
Worked example: is this goblin worth it?
Say you like four standard picks, each with roughly a 55% chance to hit. Then you see a goblin on one of those players. You swap it in, and the app shows the lineup paying 7.5x instead of 10x. (That figure is just for illustration. Use whatever your app actually shows.)
The other three picks are unchanged, so the comparison comes down to one pick:
- Standard pick: 55% chance, lineup pays 10x
- Goblin: unknown chance q, lineup pays 7.5x
The goblin is the better entry only if q × 7.5 is bigger than 0.55 × 10. That means:
q > 0.55 × 10 ÷ 7.5 = 73.3%
In American odds, 73.3% is about -275. The goblin needs to hit at least that often just to match the standard pick you replaced.
Where to get the goblin's real hit chance
This is where sportsbooks help. Most books offer alt lines, the same player stat at different numbers, each with its own price. If the goblin is receiving yards over 39.5, look for the 39.5 (or nearest) alt line at a few books.
Take the margin out of that price to get a fair probability. The no-vig calculator does it for a two-way price. Alt lines often carry a larger margin than main lines, so treat one book's number as a rough guide and compare several if you can.
Then check it against your threshold:
- If the fair price is around -300 (75%), the goblin clears the 73.3% bar. It's a slightly better entry than the standard pick.
- If it's around -250 (71.4%), it falls short. You're giving up more payout than the extra safety is worth.
On a $10 entry with the other three picks at 55%, the -250 goblin version returns about $1.09 less than you put in on average, while the all-standard version loses about $0.85. Neither is a winner at a 55% base rate, but the goblin made it worse.
The same logic for demons
Demons work the same way in reverse. Say adding a demon in place of a 55% standard pick moves the same 4-pick lineup to 15x (again, illustrative). The demon only has to hit:
d > 0.55 × 10 ÷ 15 = 36.7%
That's about +173. If the sportsbook alt line at the demon's number has a fair price shorter than +173, say +140, the demon is the better choice. If it's +220, it isn't.
Demons tend to look tempting because the payout jump is visible and large. The catch is that a line far above the standard one can be much less likely than it feels. The alt-line price tells you how much less.
A whole lineup of goblins
You can also build an entry entirely from goblins. Say four goblins show a lineup payout of 5x. The break-even per pick is:
(1 ÷ 5)^(1/4) = 66.9%, about -202
That's a much higher bar than the 56.2% for a standard 4-pick, but goblins are also much more likely to hit. The question is the same as before: are those four goblins each better than about -202 at the sportsbooks? If they're -300 lines, yes. If they're -180 lines, no.
Common mistakes
- Judging by feel. "He'll easily clear 39.5" isn't a probability. Use a sportsbook price.
- Ignoring the payout drop. A goblin that hits more often can still make the entry worse if the lineup total falls too far.
- Comparing to the wrong line. Match the goblin's exact number to an alt line. A half point matters on low-count stats like receptions or strikeouts.
- Forgetting the rules can change. Payouts, goblin availability and promos vary by state and by date. Check the app before you rely on any number.
The takeaway
A goblin or demon is a trade: hit chance for payout. To judge it, build the lineup both ways, note the payout the app shows, and work out the hit rate the new pick needs to justify the change. Then compare that to the fair price of the matching alt line at a sportsbook.
The DFS payout calculator handles the break-even math for any multiplier, and today's PrizePicks lines show the board next to sportsbook prices so you can see which lines are out of step.