Every PrizePicks entry asks the same question at the end: Power or Flex? Power pays more but needs every pick to hit. Flex pays less at the top but gives something back when you miss one or two.
Neither is better in general. Which one gives you more depends on how good your picks are, and how much swing you're willing to live with.
These examples use the payout tables Betravon currently uses for PrizePicks. Tables change and some states differ, so check the app.
The two tables
Power Play: 5 picks 20x, 6 picks 37.5x. Every pick must hit.
Flex Play:
- 5 picks: 5/5 pays 10x, 4/5 pays 2x, 3/5 pays 0.4x
- 6 picks: 6/6 pays 25x, 5/6 pays 2x, 4/6 pays 0.4x
Flex cuts the top prize roughly in half (10x vs 20x, 25x vs 37.5x) in exchange for payouts on near misses. Note that the 0.4x results return less than your stake. They soften a loss rather than make a profit.
Break-even first
The per-pick win rate each entry needs to break even:
| Entry | Break-even per pick |
|---|---|
| 5-pick Power | 54.93% |
| 5-pick Flex | 54.25% |
| 6-pick Power | 54.66% |
| 6-pick Flex | 54.21% |
Flex has the lower bar at both sizes. If your picks are only just good enough, Flex is the safer place to be.
Worked example: picks at 55%
Say each pick has a 55% chance to hit. That's a modest edge over the break-evens above. On a $10 entry:
5-pick Power. The chance all five hit is 0.55⁵ = 5.03%. Expected return: 5.03% × $200 = $10.07, an expected profit of about $0.07.
5-pick Flex. The chances of each paying result:
- 5 of 5: 5.03%, pays $100
- 4 of 5: 20.59%, pays $20
- 3 of 5: 33.69%, pays $4
Expected return: $10.50, an expected profit of about $0.50.
At 6 picks the pattern is the same. Power returns about $10.38 (profit $0.38). Flex returns about $10.75 (profit $0.75).
At a 55% hit rate, Flex wins on expected value at both sizes. Power is barely above break-even.
Worked example: picks at 58%
Now raise each pick to 58%, a stronger edge.
5-pick Power. All five hit 6.56% of the time. Expected return: $13.13, profit about $3.13.
5-pick Flex. Expected return: $12.69, profit about $2.69.
6-pick Power. Expected return: $14.28, profit about $4.28.
6-pick Flex. Expected return: $14.02, profit about $4.02.
At 58%, Power wins on expected value at both sizes. The edge compounds across every leg, and Power's bigger top prize captures more of it.
Where the switch happens
There's a hit rate where the two entries have the same expected value. Below it, Flex is ahead. Above it, Power is.
| Entry size | Crossover hit rate |
|---|---|
| 5 picks | 56.64% |
| 6 picks | 56.95% |
So a rough rule: if you think your picks are around 57% or better, Power gives the higher expected return. Below that, Flex does.
Be honest about which side you're on. Most bettors overestimate their hit rate, and a pick you'd call "60%" is often closer to 55% once you check a sportsbook's fair price. When in doubt, the lower estimate is the safer one to plan around.
Variance: the other half of the decision
Expected value tells you the average. It doesn't tell you how bumpy the ride is.
Power is all-or-nothing, so its results swing hard. Measured as the standard deviation of the return on a $10 entry:
| Entry | Hit rate | Power | Flex |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 picks | 55% | $43.72 | $21.93 |
| 5 picks | 58% | $49.53 | $24.41 |
| 6 picks | 55% | $61.52 | $40.91 |
| 6 picks | 58% | $71.76 | $47.47 |
Flex roughly halves the swing on a 5-pick entry. It also returns something far more often. At 55% per pick, a 5-pick Flex pays back at least part of the stake 59.3% of the time, while a 5-pick Power pays only 5.0% of the time.
That matters even at 58%, where Power has the better average. Taking about $0.44 less in expected profit on a 5-pick Flex buys a much steadier bankroll. With Power, you can make good picks for weeks and have nothing to show for it, simply because one leg missed each time.
Choosing between them
- Your picks are near the break-even. Play Flex. It has the lower bar and the higher expected value until you're well above 56%.
- Your picks are strong and you can handle long dry spells. Power has the higher expected value above about 57%, at the cost of much bigger swings.
- You're unsure how good your picks are. Flex. Being wrong about your edge costs less.
- You're adding a weak pick to reach six. Don't. A 5-pick with five solid picks usually beats a 6-pick with one filler, on either entry type.
The takeaway
Power vs Flex isn't a matter of style. It's a function of your hit rate. Below about 57% per pick, Flex has the better expected value and far less variance. Above it, Power edges ahead on average but swings much harder.
The DFS payout calculator shows expected value for both entry types at whatever hit rate you enter, so you can see where your own picks land before choosing.