DraftKings Pick6 and PrizePicks both ask you to pick more or less on player lines. On the surface they're the same game. The way they pay is not, and that changes the win rate you need to come out ahead.
This post compares the two on equal terms: a standard entry, all picks must hit, and the per-pick win rate needed to break even.
How Pick6 pays
PrizePicks pays a fixed multiplier set by the house. Your payout depends only on how many picks you make and whether they hit.
Pick6 is peer-to-peer. You're entered into a pool with other players, and the payout depends partly on how your entry does against theirs. Each standard entry comes with a guaranteed minimum payout if every pick hits. If fewer people in the pool get a perfect entry, you can be paid more than that minimum.
The figures Betravon uses for Pick6 are those guaranteed minimums for a standard entry:
- 2 picks: 2.7x
- 3 picks: 5x
- 4 picks: 8x
- 5 picks: 10x
- 6 picks: 20x
Boosted picks and promotions change these numbers, and contest rules can vary by state. Check the app for the exact entry you're playing.
PrizePicks Power Play for comparison
The PrizePicks Power Play table Betravon currently uses: 2 picks 3x, 3 picks 6x, 4 picks 10x, 5 picks 20x, 6 picks 37.5x. Like any app's table, it can change and may differ by state.
Break-even per pick
For an all-or-nothing entry with n picks paying M times your stake, the per-pick break-even is:
p = (1 ÷ M)^(1/n)
For a 3-pick Pick6 entry at 5x: (1 ÷ 5)^(1/3) = 58.48%, about -141 in sportsbook odds.
| Picks | Pick6 guaranteed | Break-even | Odds | PrizePicks Power | Break-even | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2.7x | 60.86% | -155 | 3x | 57.74% | -137 |
| 3 | 5x | 58.48% | -141 | 6x | 55.03% | -122 |
| 4 | 8x | 59.46% | -147 | 10x | 56.23% | -128 |
| 5 | 10x | 63.10% | -171 | 20x | 54.93% | -122 |
| 6 | 20x | 60.70% | -154 | 37.5x | 54.66% | -121 |
On guaranteed payouts alone, PrizePicks has the lower bar at every entry size.
Where the gap is biggest
The two tables are closest at small entries and split apart at larger ones. As a share of the PrizePicks multiplier, the Pick6 guarantee is:
- 2 picks: 90%
- 3 picks: 83%
- 4 picks: 80%
- 5 picks: 50%
- 6 picks: 53%
The 5-pick entry stands out. Pick6's guarantee is half of PrizePicks' 20x, which pushes the break-even to 63.10%, a -171 favorite on every leg. Very few props are priced that short.
The 3-pick is the most reasonable Pick6 entry on these numbers, at 58.48%. That's still a higher bar than any PrizePicks Power Play.
What it means in dollars
Say every pick in your entry has a 58% chance to hit. On a $10 entry, using guaranteed payouts only:
| Picks | PrizePicks expected return | Pick6 expected return |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | $10.09 | $9.08 |
| 3 | $11.71 | $9.76 |
| 4 | $11.32 | $9.05 |
| 5 | $13.13 | $6.56 |
| 6 | $14.28 | $7.61 |
At 58% per pick, every PrizePicks Power entry is above break-even and every Pick6 guaranteed payout is below it. Raise the hit rate to 60% and the Pick6 3-pick and 4-pick get just over the line ($10.80 and $10.37), while the 5- and 6-pick are still well short.
The case for Pick6
The guaranteed minimum isn't the whole story. Because Pick6 is peer-to-peer, a perfect entry can pay more than the guarantee when few others in the pool also go perfect. Picks that the crowd avoids are where that upside comes from.
That upside is real, but it's hard to estimate in advance. You don't know how many other perfect entries there will be until the contest settles. For planning purposes, the guaranteed figure is the number you can count on, and the comparison above uses it for that reason.
Pick6 also has its own line board, set separately from PrizePicks. A line that's off at one app may be fine at the other, so comparing the two boards for the same player can matter as much as comparing payout tables.
What this comparison leaves out
- Flex-style entries. PrizePicks Flex isn't included here because this comparison doesn't cover a Pick6 equivalent. Only all-or-nothing entries are compared.
- Boosts and promos. A boosted pick can change the math a lot for one entry. Treat those case by case.
- State differences. Payouts and entry types aren't the same everywhere.
The takeaway
On guaranteed payouts, PrizePicks Power Play needs a lower per-pick win rate than DraftKings Pick6 at every entry size, and the gap is widest at 5 and 6 picks. Pick6's peer-to-peer pool can pay more than its guarantee, but that upside is uncertain. If you play Pick6, smaller entries with picks priced around -140 or better at the sportsbooks are where the numbers are closest to workable.
The DFS payout calculator lets you plug in any multiplier, including a boosted or above-guarantee payout, and see the break-even and expected value for your entry.