Soccer player props look a lot like props in other sports: a player, a stat, a line, an over and an under. But the numbers behave differently. Soccer is low-scoring, most players record only a handful of the events books price, and the lines cluster at 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5. That changes how you should read them.
The common markets
Shots. Any attempt at goal, on target or not, including blocked shots in most books' rules. Lines for attacking players usually sit around 1.5 to 3.5. Check how each book defines a shot, since it isn't always identical.
Shots on target. Attempts that would have gone in without a save, plus goals. Lines are lower, usually 0.5 or 1.5. This is one of the most popular soccer props and one of the most sensitive to price.
Goals and anytime scorer. Anytime goalscorer is a yes/no bet on whether a player scores at any point. Most books exclude own goals. Some also offer over 1.5 goals, first scorer, or last scorer. Anytime scorer is usually priced at plus odds for all but the most prolific strikers.
Assists. Whether a player records an assist, usually at 0.5. How assists are credited can vary between data providers, which is one reason prices sometimes differ between books.
Tackles. Typically a defensive midfielder or full-back market, with lines around 1.5 to 3.5. Tackle counts vary a lot game to game.
Goalkeeper saves. Lines usually from 1.5 to 4.5. A keeper's saves depend mostly on how many shots on target the opponent produces, so this market is really a bet on the other team's attack.
What drives the numbers
Minutes and rotation. Nearly every soccer prop depends on time on the pitch. A striker who plays 90 minutes gets every chance to reach his line. One who's subbed off at 60 loses a third of his opportunities. Clubs playing midweek cup or European fixtures often rotate, and late-season matches with nothing at stake can see unusual lineups.
Role and position. A forward who takes penalties, or a midfielder who takes corners and free kicks, gets volume that others don't. A change in formation can move a player from the wing to a wing-back role and cut his shots sharply. Look at what the player does in the team, not just his position label.
The opponent. Some teams allow a lot of shots, others sit deep and concede few. A strong team facing a weak one will usually dominate possession and take more shots. The weaker team's keeper will usually face more of them, which helps his save total.
Home and away. Many teams play more aggressively at home. It's a smaller factor than the opponent, but it adds up.
Game state. This is the one that's hardest to predict. A team that goes a goal up early may sit back and stop attacking. A team chasing the game piles on shots. Red cards change everything. Soccer props carry more game-script risk than most sports because a single goal can change how both teams play for the rest of the match.
Why price matters more than the line
In basketball, a points line might be 22.5 at one book and 23.5 at another. In soccer, the line for a player's shots on target is 0.5 nearly everywhere. Books don't usually disagree on the line. They disagree on the price.
That makes price the whole game. Consider an over 0.5 shots on target prop:
- At -150, the break-even rate is 60.0%.
- At -120, it's 54.5%.
Same line, same player, same match. A 5.5-point difference in what you need to win.
Now put a fair price on it. Say a sharp book has the prop at over -150, under +115. Those imply 60.00% and 46.51%, a total of 106.51%. Removing the margin gives a fair over of 56.33%, or about -129. At that fair chance:
- Betting the over at -120 is about +3.3% EV.
- Betting the over at -150 is about −6.1% EV.
The same thing applies to anytime scorer. If a sharp book has a striker at yes +200, no -260, the implied probabilities total 105.56%, and the fair chance of scoring is 31.6% (about +217). Another book at +250 is roughly +10.5% EV. Taking the +200 is about −5.3%.
At low lines, half a point is a big jump, so books adjust the price instead. Over 0.5 shots on target and over 1.5 shots on target are very different bets, not small variations of the same one. Compare prices on the same line first.
The no-vig calculator turns any two-way price into a fair chance, so you can see exactly what a price difference is worth.
Check lineups before you bet
In most major leagues, starting lineups are announced about an hour before kickoff. Until then, every prop is priced on an assumption about who starts.
That creates two things to watch:
- Risk before lineups. If you bet a player's shots and he starts on the bench, you may get a fraction of the minutes you were counting on. Check each book's rules on players who don't start or don't play, since they vary.
- Opportunity after lineups. When a lineup surprises the market, books don't all update at the same speed. A player who unexpectedly starts, or who moves into a more attacking role because a teammate is out, may be priced on the old assumption for a few minutes.
If you're not betting a specific edge before lineups, waiting until they're out is usually the safer choice.
Shop every price
Because most soccer props share the same line across books, comparing prices is simple. The work is checking enough books. Our line shopping guide covers how much a better price is worth over time.
The practical takeaway
Read a soccer prop as a question about minutes, role and game script, then judge it on price, because the line is usually the same everywhere. Check lineups an hour before kickoff, de-vig a sharp book's price to get a fair chance, and take the best price you can find. Today's slate is on the soccer player props page, with every book's price for each player side by side.